How important is the three point shot in college basketball? It's on par with the first primary, Bode Miller, Happy Gilmore, the 14th president, or anything else produced by the state of New Hampshire.
In all eight of Thursday and Friday's regional semi-final games, the team with the better three point percentage prevailed. Not surprisingly, the larger the discrepancy between three point percentages, the larger the margin of victory. The three #1 seeds that won comfortably all were hot from deep. They went as follows:
UCONN at a solid 37%, Louisville at a scorching 48%, and UNC at a Diane Lane-like 57%.
Pitt's inability to stretch Xavier's tight defense was key in the second half. The Panthers went 0-8 from three in the second half until the Snake Plisskenesque heave in the final minute by Levance Fields. After further review of Escape From LA (above link), is there any doubt this is how Danny Snyder and Vinny Cerrato evaluate talent? Steve Buscemi's weasel character is equally a mirror image to Cerrato as Arnold Schwarzenegger is when playing that Austrian bodybuilder in Pumping Iron.
I'm halfway to eating some crow for the Pitt Panthers' NCAA tourney run, but I'm not sweating yet. They've struggled more than any of the remaining 8 teams to date and are as likely a team to lose as any this weekend.
(EDIT: Hollinger's Friday night article did not inspire this post, but Simmons' stuff has inspired me to get a 12-inch double meat from Subway. Sweet Onion Chicken Teriyaki, green peppers, onions, yellow peppers, tomatoes. Boom. Outta here.)
Friday, March 27, 2009
Saturday, March 21, 2009
The Streak Ends
Joe DiMaggio's 56 game hit streak.
UCLA's 88 game win streak.
Yinka Dare's NBA all-time single season record of 626 minutes played without an assist.
....safe, for this year.
Unfortunately Wiz fans, Oleksiy Pecherov ruined his perfect season with a incredibly routine pass to Nick Young. Ukrainians worldwide were dealt a crushing blow as Pecherov recorded his first assist of the season, coming in 3rd all-time in most minutes played without an assist in a season. Congrats Pech!!!
Just when we were wondering why the Wizards extended him another year, some angel gave us this beauty...CLICK ME
UCLA's 88 game win streak.
Yinka Dare's NBA all-time single season record of 626 minutes played without an assist.
....safe, for this year.
Unfortunately Wiz fans, Oleksiy Pecherov ruined his perfect season with a incredibly routine pass to Nick Young. Ukrainians worldwide were dealt a crushing blow as Pecherov recorded his first assist of the season, coming in 3rd all-time in most minutes played without an assist in a season. Congrats Pech!!!
Just when we were wondering why the Wizards extended him another year, some angel gave us this beauty...CLICK ME
Sunday, March 15, 2009
VA Is For Leavers, Not Lovers
When you think of the University of Virginia basketball program, what do you think of? Ralph Sampson? A final four run over 25 years ago? Despite having a brand new, pristine facility in John Paul Jones Arena, the Cavaliers haven't been nationally relevant in over 20 years.
When you think of the Virginia Polytechnical Institute's basketball team, what do you think of? An occasional upset over UNC or Duke? Dell Curry? Not offering Stephen Curry? Virginia Tech hasn't been relevant in...well...ever.
How embarrassing must it be for these programs that VCU and Radford are dancing? Or that not too long ago George Mason made its historic run to the final four. So why are these programs flourishing in their conferences but Virginia Tech and Virginia are getting pounded in the ACC?
It's not as tough a conundrum as their fan bases would like to think. How can you expect to produce a consistent NCAA tournament team without keeping your best prospects from defecting the state? I'm not suggesting a Pete Bell approach to recruiting. But there are plenty of Butch McRae's and Neon Boudreaux's to be had without cheating. With two of the top AAU programs in the country (Boo Williams and D.C. Assault) and the best private school league in the country (Washington Catholic Athletic Conference) within a stone's throw, these programs have no excuse for lack of talent.
While it can be expected to miss on the occasional top prospect to a national title contender like UNC, or the occasional snipe job from local rivals Maryland and Georgetown, it's inexcusable to miss out on sophomore Mike Davis from Illinois (11.2 ppg/8.1 rpg) or a 2-time All-ACC stud like Tyrese Rice (17.1 ppg/5.4 apg). Both of whom didn't get a solid offer from either major Virginia program. Virginia Tech wanted to sign Rice but place him at a prep school for a year. Davis slipped through unnoticed and is now the leading scorer and rebounder for a NCAA tournament team. Whether it is weak talent evaluation, lack of persistence, or poor relationship building with local high schools, it is undeniable that UVA and VT have failed at locking the state down in recent years. If they were collecting top talent from outside the state it would be less aggravating. But clearly that hasn't happened either. It is paramount to any successful program be it football or basketball to put a fence around the state. Not only does it help with future top state players, it builds the fan base, appeases donors and current fans, and in some situations can develop chemistry in a "this is where we're from" kind of way (see Texas football, Washington basketball, St. John's basketball).
Here is a list of players who have left the state of Virginia and gone on to play in a major conference after attending a Virginia High School. This list does not include prep school imports to schools such as Fork Union Academy, Hargrave Academy, and Oak Hill Academy.
2008:
Ed Davis (Mechanicsville) Center/North Carolina
Jason Clarke (Arlington) Wing/Georgetown
2007:
Mike Williams (Alexandria) Center/Kentucky
Julian Vaughn (Reston) Power Forward/Georgetown (via FSU)
Mike Davis (Alexandria) Power Forward/Illinois
Denzell Bowles (Virginia Beach) Power Forward/Texas A&M
Mike Scott (Chesapeake) Wing/Virginia
Shane Walker (Alexandria) Guard/Maryland
Darrion Pellum (Hampton) Wing/Virginia Tech
Stanley Pringle (Virginia Beach) Guard/Penn State
2006:
Eric Hayes (Dumfries) Guard/Maryland
Scottie Reynolds (Herndon) Point Guard/Villanova
Stefan Welsh (Newport News) Guard/Arkansas
Marcus Sikes (Richmond) Wing/Cincinnati
Duke Crews (Hampton) Power Forward/Tennessee
Vernon Macklin (Portsmouth) Center/Florida (via Georgetown)
Lewis Witcher (Rocky Mount) Power Forward/Virginia Tech
Anthony Wright (Sterling) Power Forward/Michigan
Karolis Petrukonis (Norfolk) Center/Clemson
2005:
Marcus Ginyard (Arlington) Guard/North Carolina
Tyrese Rice (Richmond) Point Guard/Boston College
Terrance Woodberry (Virginia Beach) Wing/Georgia
Leo Criswell (Norlfolk) Wing/Missouri
Chris Johnson (Virginia Beach) Center/LSU
David Neal (Arlington) Power Forward/Maryland
Shawn Taggart (Richmond) Center/Memphis (via Iowa St)
Laurynas Mikalauskas (Blue Ridge) Center/Virginia
Tomas Jasiulionis (Richmond) Center/St. John's
***This list also does not include the 100+ D1 Virginia prospects who play at competitive schools such as Davidson, George Mason, VCU, Radford, George Washington, Tulsa, etc.
Some might find it unfair to not include Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), A.D. Vassallo (Virginia Tech), Derenzon Hudson (Virginia Tech), just because they went to prep school powerhouses such as Oak Hill Academy and Hargrave Military Academy. There is no question having these superstar factories so close to campus is an unrivaled recruiting advantage for Virginia and Virginia Tech. But this isn't why I haven't included them. I was simply sparing these two schools the embarrassment. Take a look at the list of Rivals TOP 150 prospects that prep schools have pumped out in the past four years:
Tywon Lawson (UNC), Joe Alexander (WVU), Nolan Smith (Duke), Jamonte Gordon (Mississippi State), Eric Devendorf (Syracuse), Sam Young (Pittsburgh), Shane Clark (Villanova via Maryland), KC Rivers (Clemson), Tyler Smith (Tennessee via Iowa), Landon Millbourne (Maryland), Jonathon Mandeldove (UCONN), Alex Legion (Michigan via Kentucky), Jeremy Jacob (Georgia), Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), Derenzo Hudson (Virginia Tech), Mike Scott (Virginia), Eric Wallace (Ohio State), Brandon Jennings (Pro League in Europe), Ater Majok (UCONN), Demarquise Bost (Mississippi State).
Many on this list are future NBA players, but as you can see only three of these players stayed in-state, and if you include A.D. Vassallo (not a highly sought recruit) that gives Virginia Tech three and UVA none of these prep prospects. None of these are future NBA players.
Settle in for the long haul Hokie and Cav fans, this trend doesn't seem to be reversing anytime soon as Indiana, Duke, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech have already claimed the state's top talent over the next few years. Until these two programs can figure out a way to lock down the state, they will be on the outside looking in.
When you think of the Virginia Polytechnical Institute's basketball team, what do you think of? An occasional upset over UNC or Duke? Dell Curry? Not offering Stephen Curry? Virginia Tech hasn't been relevant in...well...ever.
How embarrassing must it be for these programs that VCU and Radford are dancing? Or that not too long ago George Mason made its historic run to the final four. So why are these programs flourishing in their conferences but Virginia Tech and Virginia are getting pounded in the ACC?
It's not as tough a conundrum as their fan bases would like to think. How can you expect to produce a consistent NCAA tournament team without keeping your best prospects from defecting the state? I'm not suggesting a Pete Bell approach to recruiting. But there are plenty of Butch McRae's and Neon Boudreaux's to be had without cheating. With two of the top AAU programs in the country (Boo Williams and D.C. Assault) and the best private school league in the country (Washington Catholic Athletic Conference) within a stone's throw, these programs have no excuse for lack of talent.
While it can be expected to miss on the occasional top prospect to a national title contender like UNC, or the occasional snipe job from local rivals Maryland and Georgetown, it's inexcusable to miss out on sophomore Mike Davis from Illinois (11.2 ppg/8.1 rpg) or a 2-time All-ACC stud like Tyrese Rice (17.1 ppg/5.4 apg). Both of whom didn't get a solid offer from either major Virginia program. Virginia Tech wanted to sign Rice but place him at a prep school for a year. Davis slipped through unnoticed and is now the leading scorer and rebounder for a NCAA tournament team. Whether it is weak talent evaluation, lack of persistence, or poor relationship building with local high schools, it is undeniable that UVA and VT have failed at locking the state down in recent years. If they were collecting top talent from outside the state it would be less aggravating. But clearly that hasn't happened either. It is paramount to any successful program be it football or basketball to put a fence around the state. Not only does it help with future top state players, it builds the fan base, appeases donors and current fans, and in some situations can develop chemistry in a "this is where we're from" kind of way (see Texas football, Washington basketball, St. John's basketball).
Here is a list of players who have left the state of Virginia and gone on to play in a major conference after attending a Virginia High School. This list does not include prep school imports to schools such as Fork Union Academy, Hargrave Academy, and Oak Hill Academy.
2008:
Ed Davis (Mechanicsville) Center/North Carolina
Jason Clarke (Arlington) Wing/Georgetown
2007:
Mike Williams (Alexandria) Center/Kentucky
Julian Vaughn (Reston) Power Forward/Georgetown (via FSU)
Mike Davis (Alexandria) Power Forward/Illinois
Denzell Bowles (Virginia Beach) Power Forward/Texas A&M
Mike Scott (Chesapeake) Wing/Virginia
Shane Walker (Alexandria) Guard/Maryland
Darrion Pellum (Hampton) Wing/Virginia Tech
Stanley Pringle (Virginia Beach) Guard/Penn State
2006:
Eric Hayes (Dumfries) Guard/Maryland
Scottie Reynolds (Herndon) Point Guard/Villanova
Stefan Welsh (Newport News) Guard/Arkansas
Marcus Sikes (Richmond) Wing/Cincinnati
Duke Crews (Hampton) Power Forward/Tennessee
Vernon Macklin (Portsmouth) Center/Florida (via Georgetown)
Lewis Witcher (Rocky Mount) Power Forward/Virginia Tech
Anthony Wright (Sterling) Power Forward/Michigan
Karolis Petrukonis (Norfolk) Center/Clemson
2005:
Marcus Ginyard (Arlington) Guard/North Carolina
Tyrese Rice (Richmond) Point Guard/Boston College
Terrance Woodberry (Virginia Beach) Wing/Georgia
Leo Criswell (Norlfolk) Wing/Missouri
Chris Johnson (Virginia Beach) Center/LSU
David Neal (Arlington) Power Forward/Maryland
Shawn Taggart (Richmond) Center/Memphis (via Iowa St)
Laurynas Mikalauskas (Blue Ridge) Center/Virginia
Tomas Jasiulionis (Richmond) Center/St. John's
***This list also does not include the 100+ D1 Virginia prospects who play at competitive schools such as Davidson, George Mason, VCU, Radford, George Washington, Tulsa, etc.
Some might find it unfair to not include Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), A.D. Vassallo (Virginia Tech), Derenzon Hudson (Virginia Tech), just because they went to prep school powerhouses such as Oak Hill Academy and Hargrave Military Academy. There is no question having these superstar factories so close to campus is an unrivaled recruiting advantage for Virginia and Virginia Tech. But this isn't why I haven't included them. I was simply sparing these two schools the embarrassment. Take a look at the list of Rivals TOP 150 prospects that prep schools have pumped out in the past four years:
Tywon Lawson (UNC), Joe Alexander (WVU), Nolan Smith (Duke), Jamonte Gordon (Mississippi State), Eric Devendorf (Syracuse), Sam Young (Pittsburgh), Shane Clark (Villanova via Maryland), KC Rivers (Clemson), Tyler Smith (Tennessee via Iowa), Landon Millbourne (Maryland), Jonathon Mandeldove (UCONN), Alex Legion (Michigan via Kentucky), Jeremy Jacob (Georgia), Jeff Allen (Virginia Tech), Derenzo Hudson (Virginia Tech), Mike Scott (Virginia), Eric Wallace (Ohio State), Brandon Jennings (Pro League in Europe), Ater Majok (UCONN), Demarquise Bost (Mississippi State).
Many on this list are future NBA players, but as you can see only three of these players stayed in-state, and if you include A.D. Vassallo (not a highly sought recruit) that gives Virginia Tech three and UVA none of these prep prospects. None of these are future NBA players.
Settle in for the long haul Hokie and Cav fans, this trend doesn't seem to be reversing anytime soon as Indiana, Duke, Arkansas, Oklahoma, Georgia Tech have already claimed the state's top talent over the next few years. Until these two programs can figure out a way to lock down the state, they will be on the outside looking in.
Friday, March 13, 2009
Liva Les Boulez (part 2)
With the advent of more Moneyball-like approaches to basketball, along with the harsh economic climate, creative statistical analysis and cost-cutting techniques are at a premium. This much we all know thanks to The Sports Guy, Moneyball and No Stats All-Star author Michael Lewis, Rockets GM Daryl Morey, ESPN's John Hollinger, etc.
What we don't know (as seen in part 1) is how tight Washington Wizards owner is keeping his checkbook and what his future plans are. For the sake of simplicity in this post, I will assume that GM Ernie Grunfield will have at least up to the the luxury cap which most are expecting to move back around $4-5 million to around $67 million. Due to the quirky NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, there are several ways to sneak under the luxury cap penalty while being over this number (Larry Bird Rule, Early Larry Bird Exception, Mid-Level Exception, First Round Draft pick Exception, etc).
******2009 Season********
Given how little Washington has used Juan Dixon this season, it is safe to say he will not be back. I like Dixon as a 11th-12th man type, and his salary (roughly $1 million per) is fair. But its either him or McGuire, and that's not a choice.
(15th man) Pray that Etan Thomas exercises his early termination option giving us $7.35 million to work without. While you're at it, pray that a 24 year old Wes Unseld walks into the Phone Booth and laces 'em up for the league minimum. Pencil in the Predator for at least the first half of the year, he may prove to be valuable as a 2010 expiring contract.
(14th man) Why did the Wizards exercise Oleksiy Pecherov's 2009-2010 option? Did Gilbert Arenas put a mandatory Pech roster spot in his contract to assure another year of Eastern European accent jokes. Pech to Ed Tapscott, "I got the good stufff coooach." Keep the good stuff on the bench.
(13th man) Although I didn't mind the trade due to my distaste for Antonio Daniels, I quickly soured on the AD for Javaris Crittenton and Mike James trade. The deal cost the Wizards an extra million this season and the 2009-2010 season each. This is unless Mike James doesn't exercise his player option for next year, which would save the Wizards close to $5 million. Crittenton was a decent gamble but hasn't been given enough playing time to prove worthy of anything. He has shown zero ability to hit the three. Literally. In 740 minutes, Crittenton has gone 0-3 from deep. Astounding. Let him ride the pine for another year and say goodbye along with Pesh and Thomas in 2010.
(12th man) While Antonio Daniels isn't a favorite of mine by any means, Mike James is a huge downgrade defensively at the PG. Daniels also has a higher assist ratio, and a MUCH lower usage rate. The James experiment has failed miserably. My only thinking in playing him more than Crittenton and Dixon this season was to superficially inflate his stats to the point where he and his agent think they can find a better option than the $6.45 million player option he has for next season to be Arenas' backup. I'm assuming James and/or his agent has some humility and will exercise the option despite my earnest wishes. With teams unwilling to spend as it is, it's a safe bet that James will be back in some capacity.
(11th man) Despite Dominic McGuire's inability to hit from the outside, he is a quality reserve who brings energy plays and rebounds at an extremely high rate for a guard. Starting him this past season has shown two things. 1) McGuire will never be anything better than a reserve and 2) McGuire will continue to make teams and be a coaching favorite for the little things he does well. It would be a shame to not re-up D-Mac for next year at his price.
The above is pretty much set in stone because they have no trade value. The below is movable. I'd start with trading Antawn Jamison to Portland for Sergio Rodriguez, their 2011 first round pick, and the contract obligation to pay Darius Miles' $9 million in 2009-2010. Miles' contract with the Blazers expires in 2010 (despite actually playing for the Grizzlies). This would give the Wizards cap flexibility for the summer of 2010, and an above average true backup PG in Rodriguez, who is being phased out with the drafting of Jerryd Bayless by Portland. Obviously a mismatch in terms of talent, but we dispose of over 29 million in future money owed to Jamison. This would also shave off about $1 million on the 2009-2010 cap figure.
Would you do this if you're the Wizards, knowing you're likely to have Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, or Andray Blatche able to start in Jamison's place? Absolutely. Would you finally have a true point guard on the roster? Absolutely.
Would you do this if you're the Blazers, knowing you have a weak spot at the SF position and are one piece (plus a healthy Greg Oden) from making a championship push? Absolutely. Jamison would give the Blazers a veteran presence on an extremely young team while giving them an outside threat. Jamison has a hard time guarding quick small forwards, but with elite shot blocker Greg Oden behind him, this is one of the few teams where Jamison could excel. Although this would add two more years of hefty salary, Jamison is posting his best statistical year of his career as a starter (he was highly efficient in Dallas as 6th man) and is not showing signs of aging.
(10th man) Darius Songaila is fit for 8-10 minutes a game at most. He plays tough defense especially on the pick and roll, and can keep his man outside the lane with his shooting range to 18 feet. I completely understand why past Wizards coaches have valued him, but he is neither the future nor a big player on an elite team. So why wouldn't you give all 20 of his mpg to JaVale McGee? Are you intentionally trying to stunt McGee's growth? Let's compare their seasons:
Stats per 36 minutes played
McGee: 14.9 points/9.4 rebounds/2.5 blocks/49.0% fg
Songaila: 13.0 points/5.0 rebounds/0.3 blocks/53.8% fg
Given that McGee is a rookie and is likely to improve upon these numbers, this is a no-brainer. BENCH SONGAILA PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!
(9th man) After posting his best two seasons of his career in the past two seasons, Deshawn Stevenson mailed in this season once Arenas and Haywood went down for the year. He is a nice player to have as a defensive specialist in an 8th or 9th man role for some teams. But given his offensive limitations and look-at-me attitude, Stevenson is a poor fit for a role on a team with plenty of headcases already. It's too bad he and/or the organization chose to sit him down, he now has completely eradicated any trade value. However, he seems to play well with Arenas thus has some value to the Wizards.
(8th man) The Wizards tried signing Dee Brown in an effort to have an uptempo backup point guard. That succeeded about as well as the Vladimir Veremeenko pick, better than the Rod Grizzard pick, and not quite as good as the Peter John Ramos pick. Sergio Rodriguez is a solid pg just stuck on a team with plenty of them. Rodriguez has a very reasonable expiring contract of $1.8 million so adding him is a win-win.
(7th man) While I am not sold on JaVale McGee as a future star, I think he has the ability to become Tyson Chandler with some seasoning. McGee, like Chandler, is a pretty effective shot blocker and has the hand-eye coordination to finish inside on dump offs and lobs. He needs to log plenty of minutes.
(6th man) 2009 first round pick (unless Blake Griffin). This obviously depends on the selection. Here is my choice in descending order:
Blake Griffin (Oklahoma PF)- Clear top player in the draft. A mix between Amare Stoudemire and Josh Smith. Hopefully he plays better defense than the Amare and has wiser shot selection and basketball IQ than Smith. Griffin would immediately start at PF and be a 18 pts/10 reb performer.
Greg Monroe (Georgetown PF/C)- Not the most polished but is a legit low post scorer with a great court sense. Monroe is Al Jefferson with passing skills. I love his potential and frame better than any of the other posts in the draft aside from Griffin.
Willie Warren (Oklahoma SG)- With the future invested in Agent Zero, no need to look at future busts Brandon Jennings or Ricky Rubio. Warren is the best guard in the draft. Explosive, great range, strong build, and a good defender. Think Baron Davis without knee, back, and effort issues.
Gerald Henderson (Duke SG)- Most athletic guard in the draft with a steadily improving jump shot. Duke has had as good a track record as Marion Jones the last few years in developing pros, but Henderson could very well debunk this trend. Instead of quivering at Coach K's demands to gain weight and play the power forward like other recently botched recruits, Henderson spent all off season working on his jumper making him a more complete player. Smart kid. Think Vince Carter with less hops and more heart.
Hire Celtics lead defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau as head coach. Thibodeau is widely considered one of the best defensive minds in the game.
Install the spread pick n roll as the base offense. Eddie Jordan's motion offense is the NBA's version of the Flex offense in high school basketball. It is a defunct fourth quarter offense because it has little going towards the basket, poor spacing, and usually ends up stagnant.
(Starting C) Brendan Haywood has been sorely missed in the paint. The Wizards aren't getting nearly the amount of high percentage shots with Haywood manning the middle (28th in eFG%). Haywood is much more adept at lowering opponents field goal percentage with his defensive presense than Jamison, Songaila, or Blatche. This is McGee's spot by 2010.
(Starting PF) Andray Blatche aka Nuke Laloosh is the X-factor to the future of the organization. He is long, athletic, and talented, but a head case. Don't think meat, just play. A completely new staff might help Blatche patch up his confidence issues.
(Starting SF) If only the Wizards had five Caron Butler's. Tough Juice needs to be the centerpiece to the new coaching staff's offensive scheme. Too often Butler played second fiddle to Arenas in the past. Don't allow Arenas to run the show until he proves he is healthy and ready to play both sides of the court.
(Starting SG) Put up or shut up time for Nick Young. The Wizards will have no problem seeing him defect after the 2009-2010 season if Young doesn't improve his shot selection. Young needs to spend all summer working on his outside shot. With Butler and Arenas, Young needs to be a knock-down 3pt shooter or he is worthless.
(Starting PG) If Blatche is Nuke Laloosh, Gilbert Arenas is Jimmy Chitwood. He's by far and away the most talented but would rather shoot baskets in his backyard than share the ball with his teammates. Arenas is also more likely to cash in a la Vince Carter for the rest of his career than risk his knee and jeopardize his bid for "Dancing With The Stars 2014 edition." If healthy and exhorting himself, the Wizards are the 4th best team in the East with this lineup and the correct coach. Without him, they are right back in the lottery for the the John Henson/John Wall sweepstakes.
After spending several hours studying the Wizards payroll over the next few years, I've come to the profound conclusion that the organization with Billy Beane, Bill Parcells, Greg Popovich, and Bill Belichick would have a hard time fixing the Wizards for the upcoming season. Trading Antawn Jamison will solve some of the defensive issues, but the key to the future is selecting the right player in the upcoming draft. With the team the Wizards have assembled, they probably won't receive another high lottery pick for some time, making this all the more crucial. And please...spare Washington by passing on soft Euros like this.
Next up: Cavs & Hokies Still Playing Hookie
What we don't know (as seen in part 1) is how tight Washington Wizards owner is keeping his checkbook and what his future plans are. For the sake of simplicity in this post, I will assume that GM Ernie Grunfield will have at least up to the the luxury cap which most are expecting to move back around $4-5 million to around $67 million. Due to the quirky NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, there are several ways to sneak under the luxury cap penalty while being over this number (Larry Bird Rule, Early Larry Bird Exception, Mid-Level Exception, First Round Draft pick Exception, etc).
******2009 Season********
Given how little Washington has used Juan Dixon this season, it is safe to say he will not be back. I like Dixon as a 11th-12th man type, and his salary (roughly $1 million per) is fair. But its either him or McGuire, and that's not a choice.
(15th man) Pray that Etan Thomas exercises his early termination option giving us $7.35 million to work without. While you're at it, pray that a 24 year old Wes Unseld walks into the Phone Booth and laces 'em up for the league minimum. Pencil in the Predator for at least the first half of the year, he may prove to be valuable as a 2010 expiring contract.
(14th man) Why did the Wizards exercise Oleksiy Pecherov's 2009-2010 option? Did Gilbert Arenas put a mandatory Pech roster spot in his contract to assure another year of Eastern European accent jokes. Pech to Ed Tapscott, "I got the good stufff coooach." Keep the good stuff on the bench.
(13th man) Although I didn't mind the trade due to my distaste for Antonio Daniels, I quickly soured on the AD for Javaris Crittenton and Mike James trade. The deal cost the Wizards an extra million this season and the 2009-2010 season each. This is unless Mike James doesn't exercise his player option for next year, which would save the Wizards close to $5 million. Crittenton was a decent gamble but hasn't been given enough playing time to prove worthy of anything. He has shown zero ability to hit the three. Literally. In 740 minutes, Crittenton has gone 0-3 from deep. Astounding. Let him ride the pine for another year and say goodbye along with Pesh and Thomas in 2010.
(12th man) While Antonio Daniels isn't a favorite of mine by any means, Mike James is a huge downgrade defensively at the PG. Daniels also has a higher assist ratio, and a MUCH lower usage rate. The James experiment has failed miserably. My only thinking in playing him more than Crittenton and Dixon this season was to superficially inflate his stats to the point where he and his agent think they can find a better option than the $6.45 million player option he has for next season to be Arenas' backup. I'm assuming James and/or his agent has some humility and will exercise the option despite my earnest wishes. With teams unwilling to spend as it is, it's a safe bet that James will be back in some capacity.
(11th man) Despite Dominic McGuire's inability to hit from the outside, he is a quality reserve who brings energy plays and rebounds at an extremely high rate for a guard. Starting him this past season has shown two things. 1) McGuire will never be anything better than a reserve and 2) McGuire will continue to make teams and be a coaching favorite for the little things he does well. It would be a shame to not re-up D-Mac for next year at his price.
The above is pretty much set in stone because they have no trade value. The below is movable. I'd start with trading Antawn Jamison to Portland for Sergio Rodriguez, their 2011 first round pick, and the contract obligation to pay Darius Miles' $9 million in 2009-2010. Miles' contract with the Blazers expires in 2010 (despite actually playing for the Grizzlies). This would give the Wizards cap flexibility for the summer of 2010, and an above average true backup PG in Rodriguez, who is being phased out with the drafting of Jerryd Bayless by Portland. Obviously a mismatch in terms of talent, but we dispose of over 29 million in future money owed to Jamison. This would also shave off about $1 million on the 2009-2010 cap figure.
Would you do this if you're the Wizards, knowing you're likely to have Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, or Andray Blatche able to start in Jamison's place? Absolutely. Would you finally have a true point guard on the roster? Absolutely.
Would you do this if you're the Blazers, knowing you have a weak spot at the SF position and are one piece (plus a healthy Greg Oden) from making a championship push? Absolutely. Jamison would give the Blazers a veteran presence on an extremely young team while giving them an outside threat. Jamison has a hard time guarding quick small forwards, but with elite shot blocker Greg Oden behind him, this is one of the few teams where Jamison could excel. Although this would add two more years of hefty salary, Jamison is posting his best statistical year of his career as a starter (he was highly efficient in Dallas as 6th man) and is not showing signs of aging.
(10th man) Darius Songaila is fit for 8-10 minutes a game at most. He plays tough defense especially on the pick and roll, and can keep his man outside the lane with his shooting range to 18 feet. I completely understand why past Wizards coaches have valued him, but he is neither the future nor a big player on an elite team. So why wouldn't you give all 20 of his mpg to JaVale McGee? Are you intentionally trying to stunt McGee's growth? Let's compare their seasons:
Stats per 36 minutes played
McGee: 14.9 points/9.4 rebounds/2.5 blocks/49.0% fg
Songaila: 13.0 points/5.0 rebounds/0.3 blocks/53.8% fg
Given that McGee is a rookie and is likely to improve upon these numbers, this is a no-brainer. BENCH SONGAILA PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!
(9th man) After posting his best two seasons of his career in the past two seasons, Deshawn Stevenson mailed in this season once Arenas and Haywood went down for the year. He is a nice player to have as a defensive specialist in an 8th or 9th man role for some teams. But given his offensive limitations and look-at-me attitude, Stevenson is a poor fit for a role on a team with plenty of headcases already. It's too bad he and/or the organization chose to sit him down, he now has completely eradicated any trade value. However, he seems to play well with Arenas thus has some value to the Wizards.
(8th man) The Wizards tried signing Dee Brown in an effort to have an uptempo backup point guard. That succeeded about as well as the Vladimir Veremeenko pick, better than the Rod Grizzard pick, and not quite as good as the Peter John Ramos pick. Sergio Rodriguez is a solid pg just stuck on a team with plenty of them. Rodriguez has a very reasonable expiring contract of $1.8 million so adding him is a win-win.
(7th man) While I am not sold on JaVale McGee as a future star, I think he has the ability to become Tyson Chandler with some seasoning. McGee, like Chandler, is a pretty effective shot blocker and has the hand-eye coordination to finish inside on dump offs and lobs. He needs to log plenty of minutes.
(6th man) 2009 first round pick (unless Blake Griffin). This obviously depends on the selection. Here is my choice in descending order:
Blake Griffin (Oklahoma PF)- Clear top player in the draft. A mix between Amare Stoudemire and Josh Smith. Hopefully he plays better defense than the Amare and has wiser shot selection and basketball IQ than Smith. Griffin would immediately start at PF and be a 18 pts/10 reb performer.
Greg Monroe (Georgetown PF/C)- Not the most polished but is a legit low post scorer with a great court sense. Monroe is Al Jefferson with passing skills. I love his potential and frame better than any of the other posts in the draft aside from Griffin.
Willie Warren (Oklahoma SG)- With the future invested in Agent Zero, no need to look at future busts Brandon Jennings or Ricky Rubio. Warren is the best guard in the draft. Explosive, great range, strong build, and a good defender. Think Baron Davis without knee, back, and effort issues.
Gerald Henderson (Duke SG)- Most athletic guard in the draft with a steadily improving jump shot. Duke has had as good a track record as Marion Jones the last few years in developing pros, but Henderson could very well debunk this trend. Instead of quivering at Coach K's demands to gain weight and play the power forward like other recently botched recruits, Henderson spent all off season working on his jumper making him a more complete player. Smart kid. Think Vince Carter with less hops and more heart.
Hire Celtics lead defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau as head coach. Thibodeau is widely considered one of the best defensive minds in the game.
Install the spread pick n roll as the base offense. Eddie Jordan's motion offense is the NBA's version of the Flex offense in high school basketball. It is a defunct fourth quarter offense because it has little going towards the basket, poor spacing, and usually ends up stagnant.
(Starting C) Brendan Haywood has been sorely missed in the paint. The Wizards aren't getting nearly the amount of high percentage shots with Haywood manning the middle (28th in eFG%). Haywood is much more adept at lowering opponents field goal percentage with his defensive presense than Jamison, Songaila, or Blatche. This is McGee's spot by 2010.
(Starting PF) Andray Blatche aka Nuke Laloosh is the X-factor to the future of the organization. He is long, athletic, and talented, but a head case. Don't think meat, just play. A completely new staff might help Blatche patch up his confidence issues.
(Starting SF) If only the Wizards had five Caron Butler's. Tough Juice needs to be the centerpiece to the new coaching staff's offensive scheme. Too often Butler played second fiddle to Arenas in the past. Don't allow Arenas to run the show until he proves he is healthy and ready to play both sides of the court.
(Starting SG) Put up or shut up time for Nick Young. The Wizards will have no problem seeing him defect after the 2009-2010 season if Young doesn't improve his shot selection. Young needs to spend all summer working on his outside shot. With Butler and Arenas, Young needs to be a knock-down 3pt shooter or he is worthless.
(Starting PG) If Blatche is Nuke Laloosh, Gilbert Arenas is Jimmy Chitwood. He's by far and away the most talented but would rather shoot baskets in his backyard than share the ball with his teammates. Arenas is also more likely to cash in a la Vince Carter for the rest of his career than risk his knee and jeopardize his bid for "Dancing With The Stars 2014 edition." If healthy and exhorting himself, the Wizards are the 4th best team in the East with this lineup and the correct coach. Without him, they are right back in the lottery for the the John Henson/John Wall sweepstakes.
After spending several hours studying the Wizards payroll over the next few years, I've come to the profound conclusion that the organization with Billy Beane, Bill Parcells, Greg Popovich, and Bill Belichick would have a hard time fixing the Wizards for the upcoming season. Trading Antawn Jamison will solve some of the defensive issues, but the key to the future is selecting the right player in the upcoming draft. With the team the Wizards have assembled, they probably won't receive another high lottery pick for some time, making this all the more crucial. And please...spare Washington by passing on soft Euros like this.
Next up: Cavs & Hokies Still Playing Hookie
Thursday Recap
Despite a 6 am practice Friday morning, I felt compelled to watch every minute of the Syracuse-Connecticut 6 OT thriller knowing that had at any point I gone to sleep I would have woken up furious with Paul Harris' inability to hit point blank layups, and angry at myself for missing the best college game of the year.
What a feeling it must have been to be a walk on getting meaningful minutes in the biggest game of the year. Imagine being told to sub in against a top 5 team in the country in the 5th overtime. Now factor in the following mental process that most walk on basketball players go through based on the several I've encountered at multiple schools.
Warm ups: Try to impress crowd, friends, and family by slapping the backboard on every layup.
15:48(1st half): Make wide circle around huddle during first TV timeout, ensuring the TV cameras a glance at your name on the back of your shooting shirt.
13:06(1st half): Amuse yourself by asking the tall, pasty walk on center (at 6'4") a series of questions wondering which cheerleader from the opposing school is most attractive.
6:08(1st half): Let out a primal scream after a teammate flushes on top of an opposing player. This is followed by awkward two handed high fives to those around you, which quickly you regret.
Halftime: Listen to coach yell at starters for lack of effort. Try not to laugh at coaches cursing in between inaudible grunts while giving a corny dig deep down speech.
2 minutes until second half: Rebound for rotation players hoisting non game like threes.
18:58(2nd half): Begin the stretch run mental zone-out. Secretly hope team doesn't come back so the team gets weekend off.
3:30(2nd half): Realize game has been an intense, hard fought, entertaining battle. Start cheering over the top for teammates after every positive possession.
0.00(End of regulation): Storm the court while chopping your feet Eruzione style after buzzer-beater. Argue with teammate closest to you whether the ball left the hand in time. Endlessly curse officials after shot is called off.
3:49(2nd OT): Start to think about the possibility of entering the game after third teammate fouls out. Force thought out of head immediately.
0:21(4th OT): 4th foul on Eric Devendorf. Lean to teammate and whisper, "dude if E.D. fouls out, im gettin buckets son." Begin getting Gary Williams armpits due to combo of nerves and adrenaline.
2:01(5th OT): Devendorf fouls out. Coach Boeheim looks in your direction for the first time all game. "Let's go!" Jog to scorekeeper's table while tucking in shirt. Silently thank God (and Coach Boeheim) for the 2-3 zone before stepping onto court.
...Now go win a Big East Tournament game. For the record, Justin Thomas played solid given the circumstances including a key rebound later in the game.
*****
Although I understand that many teams either intentionally or unintentionally check out mentally for the conference tournament, look at 2 key components of Pitt's loss to WVU yesterday:
1) Pitt from 3: 0-8
2) Dejuan Blair: 5 personal fouls
Swiss Cheese Panthers live up to their name...we'll see in the coming weeks what happens.
*****
The most impressive play of the night was not from any of the college madness, however. In Cleveland's win in Phoenix last night over the Suns, I saw one player make a complete goon out of himself (for the second time in Jason Richardson's career), and another cement his defensive player of the year award (LeBron James).
As J-Rich leaked out for an easy dunk, he gathered his steps for his patented 360, two-handed stuff. Little did he know, LBJ was locked in from half court, eyeing his prey. As Richardson bounced in the air, James jumped from outside the frame to pin the dunk attempt on the glass. (Edited: Granted, it may have been a foul, but the effort and athleticism was brilliant)
For James it was too easy. It was like clubbing baby seals.
For Richardson, it was the second time in his career that he embarrassingly missed a 360 dunk attempt. The first coming 9 years ago at Michigan State when he jumped too early and was forced to shoot a layup mid air. Only this layup bricked off the iron. Despite collecting the ball for an easy put back, Tom Izzo turned so blue he almost had to be wheeled off by a pair of Oompa Loompas. Despite how irate Izzo was during and after that game, I guess Richardson never learned his lesson.
Who knew a layup or simple dunk is just as effective as a 720, through the legs, tomahawk? Unfortunately for J-Rich and the Suns, a loss isn't as effective as a win. And this loss pretty much assures the Suns won't make the playoffs as they fall to six games out with 17 to go. Ironically, the Bobcats with former Suns Boris Diaw and Raja Bell, who were traded in exchange for Jason Richardson earlier in the season, are playing great and have a decent shot at making the playoffs. Another great mid season trade Steve Kerr, well played...well played indeed.
What a feeling it must have been to be a walk on getting meaningful minutes in the biggest game of the year. Imagine being told to sub in against a top 5 team in the country in the 5th overtime. Now factor in the following mental process that most walk on basketball players go through based on the several I've encountered at multiple schools.
Warm ups: Try to impress crowd, friends, and family by slapping the backboard on every layup.
15:48(1st half): Make wide circle around huddle during first TV timeout, ensuring the TV cameras a glance at your name on the back of your shooting shirt.
13:06(1st half): Amuse yourself by asking the tall, pasty walk on center (at 6'4") a series of questions wondering which cheerleader from the opposing school is most attractive.
6:08(1st half): Let out a primal scream after a teammate flushes on top of an opposing player. This is followed by awkward two handed high fives to those around you, which quickly you regret.
Halftime: Listen to coach yell at starters for lack of effort. Try not to laugh at coaches cursing in between inaudible grunts while giving a corny dig deep down speech.
2 minutes until second half: Rebound for rotation players hoisting non game like threes.
18:58(2nd half): Begin the stretch run mental zone-out. Secretly hope team doesn't come back so the team gets weekend off.
3:30(2nd half): Realize game has been an intense, hard fought, entertaining battle. Start cheering over the top for teammates after every positive possession.
0.00(End of regulation): Storm the court while chopping your feet Eruzione style after buzzer-beater. Argue with teammate closest to you whether the ball left the hand in time. Endlessly curse officials after shot is called off.
3:49(2nd OT): Start to think about the possibility of entering the game after third teammate fouls out. Force thought out of head immediately.
0:21(4th OT): 4th foul on Eric Devendorf. Lean to teammate and whisper, "dude if E.D. fouls out, im gettin buckets son." Begin getting Gary Williams armpits due to combo of nerves and adrenaline.
2:01(5th OT): Devendorf fouls out. Coach Boeheim looks in your direction for the first time all game. "Let's go!" Jog to scorekeeper's table while tucking in shirt. Silently thank God (and Coach Boeheim) for the 2-3 zone before stepping onto court.
...Now go win a Big East Tournament game. For the record, Justin Thomas played solid given the circumstances including a key rebound later in the game.
*****
Although I understand that many teams either intentionally or unintentionally check out mentally for the conference tournament, look at 2 key components of Pitt's loss to WVU yesterday:
1) Pitt from 3: 0-8
2) Dejuan Blair: 5 personal fouls
Swiss Cheese Panthers live up to their name...we'll see in the coming weeks what happens.
*****
The most impressive play of the night was not from any of the college madness, however. In Cleveland's win in Phoenix last night over the Suns, I saw one player make a complete goon out of himself (for the second time in Jason Richardson's career), and another cement his defensive player of the year award (LeBron James).
As J-Rich leaked out for an easy dunk, he gathered his steps for his patented 360, two-handed stuff. Little did he know, LBJ was locked in from half court, eyeing his prey. As Richardson bounced in the air, James jumped from outside the frame to pin the dunk attempt on the glass. (Edited: Granted, it may have been a foul, but the effort and athleticism was brilliant)
For James it was too easy. It was like clubbing baby seals.
For Richardson, it was the second time in his career that he embarrassingly missed a 360 dunk attempt. The first coming 9 years ago at Michigan State when he jumped too early and was forced to shoot a layup mid air. Only this layup bricked off the iron. Despite collecting the ball for an easy put back, Tom Izzo turned so blue he almost had to be wheeled off by a pair of Oompa Loompas. Despite how irate Izzo was during and after that game, I guess Richardson never learned his lesson.
Who knew a layup or simple dunk is just as effective as a 720, through the legs, tomahawk? Unfortunately for J-Rich and the Suns, a loss isn't as effective as a win. And this loss pretty much assures the Suns won't make the playoffs as they fall to six games out with 17 to go. Ironically, the Bobcats with former Suns Boris Diaw and Raja Bell, who were traded in exchange for Jason Richardson earlier in the season, are playing great and have a decent shot at making the playoffs. Another great mid season trade Steve Kerr, well played...well played indeed.
Wednesday, March 11, 2009
Gold or Black? (part 1)
No I'm not referring the worst uniforms in modern history the Wizards have dawned occasionally over the past few seasons. Gold or Black is the question that has been puzzling me ever since Washington Wizards owner Abe Pollin decided to give Gilbert Arenas the keys to the city. Is your ultimate goal is to win the 14.5 pound, 2 ft tall, 24 karat gold overlay trophy awarded to the NBA's annual champion? Or is it to avoid being in the red at the end of the year by maximizing immediate ticket sales?
If the later is the Wizards chief objective I could understand resigning a flashy, shoot first/defense later all-star (Arenas) who puts fans in the stands with outrageous comments and on-court gimmickry. I could reason with resigning the unquestioned leader (Antawn Jamison) of a team coming off four straight playoff appearances, albeit first-round exits. I could pretend to fathom not resigning one of the league's most improved players (Roger Mason Jr.) who also happens to be a DC native. Staying a smidge under the cap and providing 2-3 home playoff games worth of revenue is just what dishonest Abe dreams of. But not if playing into June is the ultimate goal.
Because if the goal is to compile a championship roster, none of the above is recommended. Gilbert Arenas an extremely exciting lead guard, who at times is capable of being a top 10 player in the league. But until defense becomes as important to him as whether to call TeddyKGB's bluff or fold to ACES4lyfe at halftime, he will never be able to carry a team to a title.
Jamison is an immensely talented offensive mismatch, who is actually posting the best statistical season of his career. However, like Arenas, Jamison plays less defense than Peyton Manning. He is quicker and has more range than almost every power forward in the league allowing him to post high scoring numbers. But Jamison is unable to guard on the other end because he is shorter and weaker than those he hopes to exploit on the other end. His poor on-the-ball defense causes teammates to double down leaving open three point shooters. No wonder the Wizards are routinely one of the worst teams in the league defending the three (5th worst this year). If they don't help out 'Tawn, he gets exposed or worse yet, gets into foul trouble. Jamison also has low shot blocking numbers for a starting post, affording his teammates little to no help in discouraging penetration. The hope with a tweener like Jamison is that his output on offense outperforms his porous defense. However, height and strength doesn't change from game to game. Shooting can have a cold night.
These players would be nice pieces if you were building around a franchise center (see Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis), but even so a team like the Magic has a ceiling of getting blown out in the conference finals AT BEST.
This is why I adamantly opposed resigning Arenas and Jamison. I proposed we let them both go their own way, and resign Mason Jr to the two-year deal he got from the Spurs at $7 million total. This would have left us a full $23 million under the luxery cap. Sign James Posey to a 4-year $22 million deal (he got 4yr/20mil from New Orleans). This leaves would have left the Wizards with a considerable amount of wiggle room with which to add talent and increase payroll at the all-star break while teams were almost giving away players.
With this strategy, one would build the team around Caron Butler, a top 5 2009 draft pick, and a 2nd tier star in the 2010 sweepstakes. Start Nick Young, Andray Blatche and let them play through the inevitable mistakes, then trade Blatche mid-season to a team in need of another post and while his cheap contract is valued. Draft JJ Hickson with the 18th pick in the 2008 draft in the future Paul Millsap/Carl Landry, energy off the bench role. In 2010 draft Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, or top pg available depending on the spot. Then sign Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh after the top markets have broken the the bank on Kobe, LBJ, and D-Wade. This is the formula the Wizards should've used.
Granted, this strategy would have killed season ticket numbers, luxury sweets, and ticked off several Arenas blowhards in the process. But it would have started to reverse the longest current championship drought for any city with an NBA, MLB, and NFL team (other than Cleveland). And don't go boo hoo for Cleveland. They've gotten the pleasure of watching the greatest athlete ever make grown men quiver, hesitate, and ultimately part the lane like the red sea as Bron Bron Earl Campbell's his way through the lane. Meanwhile the Rock N' Roll capital of the world will potentially end their drought in the coming months while we Wiz partisans will suffer for the next several years.
Unless...
I will do my best Bill Parcells in Part 2 next time...
If the later is the Wizards chief objective I could understand resigning a flashy, shoot first/defense later all-star (Arenas) who puts fans in the stands with outrageous comments and on-court gimmickry. I could reason with resigning the unquestioned leader (Antawn Jamison) of a team coming off four straight playoff appearances, albeit first-round exits. I could pretend to fathom not resigning one of the league's most improved players (Roger Mason Jr.) who also happens to be a DC native. Staying a smidge under the cap and providing 2-3 home playoff games worth of revenue is just what dishonest Abe dreams of. But not if playing into June is the ultimate goal.
Because if the goal is to compile a championship roster, none of the above is recommended. Gilbert Arenas an extremely exciting lead guard, who at times is capable of being a top 10 player in the league. But until defense becomes as important to him as whether to call TeddyKGB's bluff or fold to ACES4lyfe at halftime, he will never be able to carry a team to a title.
Jamison is an immensely talented offensive mismatch, who is actually posting the best statistical season of his career. However, like Arenas, Jamison plays less defense than Peyton Manning. He is quicker and has more range than almost every power forward in the league allowing him to post high scoring numbers. But Jamison is unable to guard on the other end because he is shorter and weaker than those he hopes to exploit on the other end. His poor on-the-ball defense causes teammates to double down leaving open three point shooters. No wonder the Wizards are routinely one of the worst teams in the league defending the three (5th worst this year). If they don't help out 'Tawn, he gets exposed or worse yet, gets into foul trouble. Jamison also has low shot blocking numbers for a starting post, affording his teammates little to no help in discouraging penetration. The hope with a tweener like Jamison is that his output on offense outperforms his porous defense. However, height and strength doesn't change from game to game. Shooting can have a cold night.
These players would be nice pieces if you were building around a franchise center (see Jameer Nelson and Rashard Lewis), but even so a team like the Magic has a ceiling of getting blown out in the conference finals AT BEST.
This is why I adamantly opposed resigning Arenas and Jamison. I proposed we let them both go their own way, and resign Mason Jr to the two-year deal he got from the Spurs at $7 million total. This would have left us a full $23 million under the luxery cap. Sign James Posey to a 4-year $22 million deal (he got 4yr/20mil from New Orleans). This leaves would have left the Wizards with a considerable amount of wiggle room with which to add talent and increase payroll at the all-star break while teams were almost giving away players.
With this strategy, one would build the team around Caron Butler, a top 5 2009 draft pick, and a 2nd tier star in the 2010 sweepstakes. Start Nick Young, Andray Blatche and let them play through the inevitable mistakes, then trade Blatche mid-season to a team in need of another post and while his cheap contract is valued. Draft JJ Hickson with the 18th pick in the 2008 draft in the future Paul Millsap/Carl Landry, energy off the bench role. In 2010 draft Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, or top pg available depending on the spot. Then sign Amare Stoudemire or Chris Bosh after the top markets have broken the the bank on Kobe, LBJ, and D-Wade. This is the formula the Wizards should've used.
Granted, this strategy would have killed season ticket numbers, luxury sweets, and ticked off several Arenas blowhards in the process. But it would have started to reverse the longest current championship drought for any city with an NBA, MLB, and NFL team (other than Cleveland). And don't go boo hoo for Cleveland. They've gotten the pleasure of watching the greatest athlete ever make grown men quiver, hesitate, and ultimately part the lane like the red sea as Bron Bron Earl Campbell's his way through the lane. Meanwhile the Rock N' Roll capital of the world will potentially end their drought in the coming months while we Wiz partisans will suffer for the next several years.
Unless...
I will do my best Bill Parcells in Part 2 next time...
Tuesday, March 10, 2009
Swiss Cheese Panthers
For every cheerleader who fills out a bracket by favorite colors, there's a wannabe expert (like me) claiming to know the formula to who will win the NCAA Championship. I know no such formula, in fact, I'm willing to accept the truth of my layman's bracket performance in the past 3 seasons. I am however ready to go out and say the Pittsburgh Panthers won't win it all.
I hear comments from my friends all the time about how tough they are, how great a rebounder DeJuan Blair is, how steady Levance Fields is, what an athlete Sam Young is. I'm tired of it. They're swiss cheese. Not enough outside shooting. Not enough NBA talent.
So often you hear people claim you have to be "tournament experienced" to make it deep. I don't buy this argument, but even so, how has Pitt done in the tournament recently?
2008-round of 32 (to MSU)
2007-round of 16 (to UCLA)
2006-round of 32 (to Bradley)
2005-round of 64 (to Pacific)
But this is a myth, look at Florida in 2006, they fielded a starting 5 consisting of 4 sophomores and 1 junior. The previous year Taureen Green, Joakim Noah, and Lee Humphrey were all reserves on a team that starred David Lee, Anthony Roberson, and Matt Walsh. The 2003 Syracuse Orangemen were led by freshman Gerry McNamara and Carmelo Anthony along with Sophomore Hakim Warrick. There are numerous other examples. Did it matter that Derrick Rose hadn't played a single NCAA tournament game last year? No. What this helps prove is that NBA talent, not experience, is what matters.
When looking at the past champions you will see SEVERAL legitimate NBA players on every roster:
2008 Kansas: Mario Chalmers, B. Rush, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson (Aldridge, Collins)
2007 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2006 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2005 UNC: McCants, Felton, M. Williams, Sean May
2004 Uconn: Gordon, Okafor, Villaneuva, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams
2003 Syracuse: Warrick, Anthony
2002 Maryland: Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake, Juan Dixon
2001 Duke: Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon
Sam Young is a great player. He is explosive, can shoot the mid-range, finish at the rim, and defend at an elite NCAA level. Think somewhere between Josh Howard and Dominic McGuire.
DeJuan Blair is a nasty rebounder and a bruising low-post scorer. But he has a ceiling of Leon Powe and won't win battles against premier offensive forwards because he can't play defense while staying out of foul trouble against athletic posts (see Louisville's 3 straight wins vs Pitt).
So in the Panthers you have a mid-first round pick in Young, maybe a late first round pick in Blair, and then nothing. Youth is common on the aforementioned championship teams. That's because if you're good enough to play in the NBA, 9 out of 10 times you don't make it to your senior year. It almost never happens. You have to go back to the 2004 draft to find a senior point guard taken in the lottery (Devin Harris).
Levance Fields is a nice college player. He has been hot lately recording double digit assists in his last 3 games including a 10 pts, 12 ast, 5 reb line against #1 Uconn. But he is a liability from deep and a shaky FT shooter like the rest of his team. Fields sums up his team's deficiencies:
Lack of NBA firepower (as seen above)
No shooting (not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%)
This latter part is what really worries me. In order to win the NCAA championship you have to win 6 games. I'll cut off 2 of those because no way an 8 or 16 seed will challenge Pitt. But that leaves 4 losable games. After last year's 4 #1 seed Final Four it's not unrealistic to think that these will be 3 #1 seeds and a #2 seed.
Do you think Pitt has the guns to beat (for instance) Kansas, Oklahoma, UNC, and then Uconn for a 3rd time?? Not a shot. So often teams built like Pitt on physical play and great defense get ousted by weaker teams on a hot shooting night because they don't have the guns to match it. In a 6 game tournament, at least 2 of those teams are going to be hot from deep. How will Pitt match this?
They won't.
Pitt's top 2 3pt shooters are 5th and 6th men, Brad Wannamaker (22-50=44%) and Tyrell Biggs (18-45=40%). However both of them combined (95 shots) haven't shot as many threes as Jermaine Dixon (32-101=32%), Levance Fields (40-115=34%), or Sam Young (42-117=35%).
This is a poor shooting team, as I said, they are not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%.
I love how Jamie Dixon coaches defense. He is one of the best at teaching rotations, maximizing talent and effort, and energizing the town and arena (which is one of the best homecourt advantages in the league). But you better not put the house down on a bracket leaving Pitt as the last team standing...there's no cheddar to be had from the Swiss Cheese Panthers.
Tomorrow I will uncover how the wizards can salvage next year's 79.8 million dollar mess
I hear comments from my friends all the time about how tough they are, how great a rebounder DeJuan Blair is, how steady Levance Fields is, what an athlete Sam Young is. I'm tired of it. They're swiss cheese. Not enough outside shooting. Not enough NBA talent.
So often you hear people claim you have to be "tournament experienced" to make it deep. I don't buy this argument, but even so, how has Pitt done in the tournament recently?
2008-round of 32 (to MSU)
2007-round of 16 (to UCLA)
2006-round of 32 (to Bradley)
2005-round of 64 (to Pacific)
But this is a myth, look at Florida in 2006, they fielded a starting 5 consisting of 4 sophomores and 1 junior. The previous year Taureen Green, Joakim Noah, and Lee Humphrey were all reserves on a team that starred David Lee, Anthony Roberson, and Matt Walsh. The 2003 Syracuse Orangemen were led by freshman Gerry McNamara and Carmelo Anthony along with Sophomore Hakim Warrick. There are numerous other examples. Did it matter that Derrick Rose hadn't played a single NCAA tournament game last year? No. What this helps prove is that NBA talent, not experience, is what matters.
When looking at the past champions you will see SEVERAL legitimate NBA players on every roster:
2008 Kansas: Mario Chalmers, B. Rush, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson (Aldridge, Collins)
2007 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2006 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2005 UNC: McCants, Felton, M. Williams, Sean May
2004 Uconn: Gordon, Okafor, Villaneuva, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams
2003 Syracuse: Warrick, Anthony
2002 Maryland: Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake, Juan Dixon
2001 Duke: Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon
Sam Young is a great player. He is explosive, can shoot the mid-range, finish at the rim, and defend at an elite NCAA level. Think somewhere between Josh Howard and Dominic McGuire.
DeJuan Blair is a nasty rebounder and a bruising low-post scorer. But he has a ceiling of Leon Powe and won't win battles against premier offensive forwards because he can't play defense while staying out of foul trouble against athletic posts (see Louisville's 3 straight wins vs Pitt).
So in the Panthers you have a mid-first round pick in Young, maybe a late first round pick in Blair, and then nothing. Youth is common on the aforementioned championship teams. That's because if you're good enough to play in the NBA, 9 out of 10 times you don't make it to your senior year. It almost never happens. You have to go back to the 2004 draft to find a senior point guard taken in the lottery (Devin Harris).
Levance Fields is a nice college player. He has been hot lately recording double digit assists in his last 3 games including a 10 pts, 12 ast, 5 reb line against #1 Uconn. But he is a liability from deep and a shaky FT shooter like the rest of his team. Fields sums up his team's deficiencies:
Lack of NBA firepower (as seen above)
No shooting (not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%)
This latter part is what really worries me. In order to win the NCAA championship you have to win 6 games. I'll cut off 2 of those because no way an 8 or 16 seed will challenge Pitt. But that leaves 4 losable games. After last year's 4 #1 seed Final Four it's not unrealistic to think that these will be 3 #1 seeds and a #2 seed.
Do you think Pitt has the guns to beat (for instance) Kansas, Oklahoma, UNC, and then Uconn for a 3rd time?? Not a shot. So often teams built like Pitt on physical play and great defense get ousted by weaker teams on a hot shooting night because they don't have the guns to match it. In a 6 game tournament, at least 2 of those teams are going to be hot from deep. How will Pitt match this?
They won't.
Pitt's top 2 3pt shooters are 5th and 6th men, Brad Wannamaker (22-50=44%) and Tyrell Biggs (18-45=40%). However both of them combined (95 shots) haven't shot as many threes as Jermaine Dixon (32-101=32%), Levance Fields (40-115=34%), or Sam Young (42-117=35%).
This is a poor shooting team, as I said, they are not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%.
I love how Jamie Dixon coaches defense. He is one of the best at teaching rotations, maximizing talent and effort, and energizing the town and arena (which is one of the best homecourt advantages in the league). But you better not put the house down on a bracket leaving Pitt as the last team standing...there's no cheddar to be had from the Swiss Cheese Panthers.
Tomorrow I will uncover how the wizards can salvage next year's 79.8 million dollar mess
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