Swiss Cheese Panthers

For every cheerleader who fills out a bracket by favorite colors, there's a wannabe expert (like me) claiming to know the formula to who will win the NCAA Championship. I know no such formula, in fact, I'm willing to accept the truth of my layman's bracket performance in the past 3 seasons. I am however ready to go out and say the Pittsburgh Panthers won't win it all.

I hear comments from my friends all the time about how tough they are, how great a rebounder DeJuan Blair is, how steady Levance Fields is, what an athlete Sam Young is. I'm tired of it. They're swiss cheese. Not enough outside shooting. Not enough NBA talent.

So often you hear people claim you have to be "tournament experienced" to make it deep. I don't buy this argument, but even so, how has Pitt done in the tournament recently?

2008-round of 32 (to MSU)
2007-round of 16 (to UCLA)
2006-round of 32 (to Bradley)
2005-round of 64 (to Pacific)

But this is a myth, look at Florida in 2006, they fielded a starting 5 consisting of 4 sophomores and 1 junior. The previous year Taureen Green, Joakim Noah, and Lee Humphrey were all reserves on a team that starred David Lee, Anthony Roberson, and Matt Walsh. The 2003 Syracuse Orangemen were led by freshman Gerry McNamara and Carmelo Anthony along with Sophomore Hakim Warrick. There are numerous other examples. Did it matter that Derrick Rose hadn't played a single NCAA tournament game last year? No. What this helps prove is that NBA talent, not experience, is what matters.

When looking at the past champions you will see SEVERAL legitimate NBA players on every roster:

2008 Kansas: Mario Chalmers, B. Rush, Darrell Arthur, Darnell Jackson (Aldridge, Collins)
2007 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2006 Florida: Corey Brewer, Noah, Al Horford, Maureese Speights
2005 UNC: McCants, Felton, M. Williams, Sean May
2004 Uconn: Gordon, Okafor, Villaneuva, Josh Boone, Hilton Armstrong, Marcus Williams
2003 Syracuse: Warrick, Anthony
2002 Maryland: Chris Wilcox, Steve Blake, Juan Dixon
2001 Duke: Shane Battier, Mike Dunleavy, Jay Williams, Carlos Boozer, Chris Duhon

Sam Young is a great player. He is explosive, can shoot the mid-range, finish at the rim, and defend at an elite NCAA level. Think somewhere between Josh Howard and Dominic McGuire.

DeJuan Blair is a nasty rebounder and a bruising low-post scorer. But he has a ceiling of Leon Powe and won't win battles against premier offensive forwards because he can't play defense while staying out of foul trouble against athletic posts (see Louisville's 3 straight wins vs Pitt).

So in the Panthers you have a mid-first round pick in Young, maybe a late first round pick in Blair, and then nothing. Youth is common on the aforementioned championship teams. That's because if you're good enough to play in the NBA, 9 out of 10 times you don't make it to your senior year. It almost never happens. You have to go back to the 2004 draft to find a senior point guard taken in the lottery (Devin Harris).

Levance Fields is a nice college player. He has been hot lately recording double digit assists in his last 3 games including a 10 pts, 12 ast, 5 reb line against #1 Uconn. But he is a liability from deep and a shaky FT shooter like the rest of his team. Fields sums up his team's deficiencies:

Lack of NBA firepower (as seen above)

No shooting (not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%)

This latter part is what really worries me. In order to win the NCAA championship you have to win 6 games. I'll cut off 2 of those because no way an 8 or 16 seed will challenge Pitt. But that leaves 4 losable games. After last year's 4 #1 seed Final Four it's not unrealistic to think that these will be 3 #1 seeds and a #2 seed.

Do you think Pitt has the guns to beat (for instance) Kansas, Oklahoma, UNC, and then Uconn for a 3rd time?? Not a shot. So often teams built like Pitt on physical play and great defense get ousted by weaker teams on a hot shooting night because they don't have the guns to match it. In a 6 game tournament, at least 2 of those teams are going to be hot from deep. How will Pitt match this?

They won't.

Pitt's top 2 3pt shooters are 5th and 6th men, Brad Wannamaker (22-50=44%) and Tyrell Biggs (18-45=40%). However both of them combined (95 shots) haven't shot as many threes as Jermaine Dixon (32-101=32%), Levance Fields (40-115=34%), or Sam Young (42-117=35%).

This is a poor shooting team, as I said, they are not in the top 100 in 3pt%, 3pt made, or FT%.

I love how Jamie Dixon coaches defense. He is one of the best at teaching rotations, maximizing talent and effort, and energizing the town and arena (which is one of the best homecourt advantages in the league). But you better not put the house down on a bracket leaving Pitt as the last team standing...there's no cheddar to be had from the Swiss Cheese Panthers.


Tomorrow I will uncover how the wizards can salvage next year's 79.8 million dollar mess