Liva Les Boulez (part 2)

With the advent of more Moneyball-like approaches to basketball, along with the harsh economic climate, creative statistical analysis and cost-cutting techniques are at a premium. This much we all know thanks to The Sports Guy, Moneyball and No Stats All-Star author Michael Lewis, Rockets GM Daryl Morey, ESPN's John Hollinger, etc.

What we don't know (as seen in part 1) is how tight Washington Wizards owner is keeping his checkbook and what his future plans are. For the sake of simplicity in this post, I will assume that GM Ernie Grunfield will have at least up to the the luxury cap which most are expecting to move back around $4-5 million to around $67 million. Due to the quirky NBA Collective Bargaining Agreement, there are several ways to sneak under the luxury cap penalty while being over this number (Larry Bird Rule, Early Larry Bird Exception, Mid-Level Exception, First Round Draft pick Exception, etc).

******2009 Season********

Given how little Washington has used Juan Dixon this season, it is safe to say he will not be back. I like Dixon as a 11th-12th man type, and his salary (roughly $1 million per) is fair. But its either him or McGuire, and that's not a choice.

(15th man) Pray that Etan Thomas exercises his early termination option giving us $7.35 million to work without. While you're at it, pray that a 24 year old Wes Unseld walks into the Phone Booth and laces 'em up for the league minimum. Pencil in the Predator for at least the first half of the year, he may prove to be valuable as a 2010 expiring contract.

(14th man) Why did the Wizards exercise Oleksiy Pecherov's 2009-2010 option? Did Gilbert Arenas put a mandatory Pech roster spot in his contract to assure another year of Eastern European accent jokes. Pech to Ed Tapscott, "I got the good stufff coooach." Keep the good stuff on the bench.

(13th man) Although I didn't mind the trade due to my distaste for Antonio Daniels, I quickly soured on the AD for Javaris Crittenton and Mike James trade. The deal cost the Wizards an extra million this season and the 2009-2010 season each. This is unless Mike James doesn't exercise his player option for next year, which would save the Wizards close to $5 million. Crittenton was a decent gamble but hasn't been given enough playing time to prove worthy of anything. He has shown zero ability to hit the three. Literally. In 740 minutes, Crittenton has gone 0-3 from deep. Astounding. Let him ride the pine for another year and say goodbye along with Pesh and Thomas in 2010.

(12th man) While Antonio Daniels isn't a favorite of mine by any means, Mike James is a huge downgrade defensively at the PG. Daniels also has a higher assist ratio, and a MUCH lower usage rate. The James experiment has failed miserably. My only thinking in playing him more than Crittenton and Dixon this season was to superficially inflate his stats to the point where he and his agent think they can find a better option than the $6.45 million player option he has for next season to be Arenas' backup. I'm assuming James and/or his agent has some humility and will exercise the option despite my earnest wishes. With teams unwilling to spend as it is, it's a safe bet that James will be back in some capacity.

(11th man) Despite Dominic McGuire's inability to hit from the outside, he is a quality reserve who brings energy plays and rebounds at an extremely high rate for a guard. Starting him this past season has shown two things. 1) McGuire will never be anything better than a reserve and 2) McGuire will continue to make teams and be a coaching favorite for the little things he does well. It would be a shame to not re-up D-Mac for next year at his price.

The above is pretty much set in stone because they have no trade value. The below is movable. I'd start with trading Antawn Jamison to Portland for Sergio Rodriguez, their 2011 first round pick, and the contract obligation to pay Darius Miles' $9 million in 2009-2010. Miles' contract with the Blazers expires in 2010 (despite actually playing for the Grizzlies). This would give the Wizards cap flexibility for the summer of 2010, and an above average true backup PG in Rodriguez, who is being phased out with the drafting of Jerryd Bayless by Portland. Obviously a mismatch in terms of talent, but we dispose of over 29 million in future money owed to Jamison. This would also shave off about $1 million on the 2009-2010 cap figure.

Would you do this if you're the Wizards, knowing you're likely to have Blake Griffin, Greg Monroe, or Andray Blatche able to start in Jamison's place? Absolutely. Would you finally have a true point guard on the roster? Absolutely.

Would you do this if you're the Blazers, knowing you have a weak spot at the SF position and are one piece (plus a healthy Greg Oden) from making a championship push? Absolutely. Jamison would give the Blazers a veteran presence on an extremely young team while giving them an outside threat. Jamison has a hard time guarding quick small forwards, but with elite shot blocker Greg Oden behind him, this is one of the few teams where Jamison could excel. Although this would add two more years of hefty salary, Jamison is posting his best statistical year of his career as a starter (he was highly efficient in Dallas as 6th man) and is not showing signs of aging.

(10th man) Darius Songaila is fit for 8-10 minutes a game at most. He plays tough defense especially on the pick and roll, and can keep his man outside the lane with his shooting range to 18 feet. I completely understand why past Wizards coaches have valued him, but he is neither the future nor a big player on an elite team. So why wouldn't you give all 20 of his mpg to JaVale McGee? Are you intentionally trying to stunt McGee's growth? Let's compare their seasons:

Stats per 36 minutes played

McGee: 14.9 points/9.4 rebounds/2.5 blocks/49.0% fg
Songaila: 13.0 points/5.0 rebounds/0.3 blocks/53.8% fg

Given that McGee is a rookie and is likely to improve upon these numbers, this is a no-brainer. BENCH SONGAILA PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!

(9th man) After posting his best two seasons of his career in the past two seasons, Deshawn Stevenson mailed in this season once Arenas and Haywood went down for the year. He is a nice player to have as a defensive specialist in an 8th or 9th man role for some teams. But given his offensive limitations and look-at-me attitude, Stevenson is a poor fit for a role on a team with plenty of headcases already. It's too bad he and/or the organization chose to sit him down, he now has completely eradicated any trade value. However, he seems to play well with Arenas thus has some value to the Wizards.

(8th man) The Wizards tried signing Dee Brown in an effort to have an uptempo backup point guard. That succeeded about as well as the Vladimir Veremeenko pick, better than the Rod Grizzard pick, and not quite as good as the Peter John Ramos pick. Sergio Rodriguez is a solid pg just stuck on a team with plenty of them. Rodriguez has a very reasonable expiring contract of $1.8 million so adding him is a win-win.

(7th man) While I am not sold on JaVale McGee as a future star, I think he has the ability to become Tyson Chandler with some seasoning. McGee, like Chandler, is a pretty effective shot blocker and has the hand-eye coordination to finish inside on dump offs and lobs. He needs to log plenty of minutes.

(6th man) 2009 first round pick (unless Blake Griffin). This obviously depends on the selection. Here is my choice in descending order:

Blake Griffin (Oklahoma PF)- Clear top player in the draft. A mix between Amare Stoudemire and Josh Smith. Hopefully he plays better defense than the Amare and has wiser shot selection and basketball IQ than Smith. Griffin would immediately start at PF and be a 18 pts/10 reb performer.

Greg Monroe (Georgetown PF/C)- Not the most polished but is a legit low post scorer with a great court sense. Monroe is Al Jefferson with passing skills. I love his potential and frame better than any of the other posts in the draft aside from Griffin.

Willie Warren (Oklahoma SG)- With the future invested in Agent Zero, no need to look at future busts Brandon Jennings or Ricky Rubio. Warren is the best guard in the draft. Explosive, great range, strong build, and a good defender. Think Baron Davis without knee, back, and effort issues.

Gerald Henderson (Duke SG)- Most athletic guard in the draft with a steadily improving jump shot. Duke has had as good a track record as Marion Jones the last few years in developing pros, but Henderson could very well debunk this trend. Instead of quivering at Coach K's demands to gain weight and play the power forward like other recently botched recruits, Henderson spent all off season working on his jumper making him a more complete player. Smart kid. Think Vince Carter with less hops and more heart.

Hire Celtics lead defensive assistant Tom Thibodeau as head coach. Thibodeau is widely considered one of the best defensive minds in the game.

Install the spread pick n roll as the base offense. Eddie Jordan's motion offense is the NBA's version of the Flex offense in high school basketball. It is a defunct fourth quarter offense because it has little going towards the basket, poor spacing, and usually ends up stagnant.

(Starting C) Brendan Haywood has been sorely missed in the paint. The Wizards aren't getting nearly the amount of high percentage shots with Haywood manning the middle (28th in eFG%). Haywood is much more adept at lowering opponents field goal percentage with his defensive presense than Jamison, Songaila, or Blatche. This is McGee's spot by 2010.

(Starting PF) Andray Blatche aka Nuke Laloosh is the X-factor to the future of the organization. He is long, athletic, and talented, but a head case. Don't think meat, just play. A completely new staff might help Blatche patch up his confidence issues.

(Starting SF) If only the Wizards had five Caron Butler's. Tough Juice needs to be the centerpiece to the new coaching staff's offensive scheme. Too often Butler played second fiddle to Arenas in the past. Don't allow Arenas to run the show until he proves he is healthy and ready to play both sides of the court.

(Starting SG) Put up or shut up time for Nick Young. The Wizards will have no problem seeing him defect after the 2009-2010 season if Young doesn't improve his shot selection. Young needs to spend all summer working on his outside shot. With Butler and Arenas, Young needs to be a knock-down 3pt shooter or he is worthless.

(Starting PG) If Blatche is Nuke Laloosh, Gilbert Arenas is Jimmy Chitwood. He's by far and away the most talented but would rather shoot baskets in his backyard than share the ball with his teammates. Arenas is also more likely to cash in a la Vince Carter for the rest of his career than risk his knee and jeopardize his bid for "Dancing With The Stars 2014 edition." If healthy and exhorting himself, the Wizards are the 4th best team in the East with this lineup and the correct coach. Without him, they are right back in the lottery for the the John Henson/John Wall sweepstakes.

After spending several hours studying the Wizards payroll over the next few years, I've come to the profound conclusion that the organization with Billy Beane, Bill Parcells, Greg Popovich, and Bill Belichick would have a hard time fixing the Wizards for the upcoming season. Trading Antawn Jamison will solve some of the defensive issues, but the key to the future is selecting the right player in the upcoming draft. With the team the Wizards have assembled, they probably won't receive another high lottery pick for some time, making this all the more crucial. And please...spare Washington by passing on soft Euros like this.

Next up: Cavs & Hokies Still Playing Hookie